Last one year, stocks have been performing pretty well except for debt laden European countries like Greece, Argentina, Spain and Portugal. Greece lost 37.05%, Argentina losing 14.20%, Spain paring 11.51% and Portugal down by 10.58%. Winners on the Street were Denmark gaining 31.51%, Ireland (24.42%), Switzerland (22.29%), Philippines (21.56%), Turkey (20.80%) followed by Mexico, US, Norway and South Africa. However, heavily sold out marketslike Brazil, Spain, Italy, Argentina, Greece and Shanghai might see buying interest from Institutional side on attractive valuations or they can see little volatility, if there is turbulence in markets. On the bullish side, these markets will attract huge Institutional buying especially on Brazil in the long term due to heavy spending announcements recently made by the ruling government.
Gold is on the flip side losing its shine for the last 1 year losing 16.16% from August 2011 due to strength in dollar and unexpected rally in Stock market. In addition, Gold skyrocketed to 1920 dollars in 2011 due to investment base rally rather than demand driven rally. Gold demand has now dropped to 7% in second quarter of 2012 according to the latest data from World Gold Council. According to the data, a 38% drop on year-on-year demand due to low demand from India and China which represents 45% of total second quarter jewellery is pointing concerns that Gold is likely to lose its shine for the remaining part of the year. Uncertain world economies will certainly have weightage on gold prices and liquidation is likely to happen from major institutions for this commodity.
Crude is still on the upside due to fundamental factors like Middle east tensions and expectations of stimulus from central banks with limited downside possibility. London Brent has given a return of 9.52% for last 1 year which has been moved entirely on Fundamental aspect and is still hovering above $100 per barrel as observed in August 2011. Brent even though in overbought levels has enough space to move towards North on escalating supply tensions from Middle East and stimulus hope expectations.One can easily enter into any big corrections such as 105-102 in Brent Crude with target in the range of 120-125.
Bonds being the favorite dish for Institutional side are now becoming bitter to their portfolios on account of slump in major economies and now it has lost its flavor for the last few years. Sovereign credit issues shattered entire Euro-zone nations and Central Banks were having enough nightmaresover the last few years starting from Greece, Portugal, and Italy and now with Spain. Switzerland, Hong Kong, Japan, Denmark, Singapore, Germany, Sweden are being in a better shape of economy with investors trying to safe park their money in now a days.
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